Monday, 18 July 2016

Alashkert vs Dinamo Tbilisi Champions League Match Preview And Prediction - July 19, 2016


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Hosts Alashkert convincingly took care of FC Santa Coloma in their 3-0 home leg of the UEFA Champions League 1st qualifying round a fortnight ago, after drawing 0-0 in the first leg. Alashkert are relative newcomers to European competition after the club was revived in 2011 but were only playing Europa League football last season. Improvement has been seen since then, winning the Armenian Premier League in the 2015/2016 season to to qualify for this competition. Alashkert now have a mountain to climb as they trail 2-0 on aggregate to the visitors.

Dinamo Tbilisi are the biggest club in Georgia and won the title for a record 16th time last season. Dinamo cruised to the title winning 25 of their 30 matches but to have a decent run in European competition must be on their minds, having failed to do so over the last years. Dinamo’s 2-0 win at home to Alashkert in the first leg represented only their 2nd win from 9 fixtures in Europe, but they too seem a much improved side since their 4-0 aggregate defeat to Aktobe in the same stage of the 2014 competition.

Dinamo showed that their extensive preseason preparation had payed off in the first leg where the registered a total of 16 attempts compared to the 5 of Alashkert. The Georgians are once again the bookies favourites to win the game, but Alashkert will be sure to make them work for it. Alashkert may have have lost 2 of their last 3 matches at home, but they have scored an average of 2 goals per game at home over their last 5 and 4 of these had over 2.5 goals scored. Similarly, 3 of Dinamo’s last 5 games on the road have had over 2.5 goals scored.

Combining this analysis with the statistics below, we expect a few goals in this match as Dinamo take advantage of hosts Alashkert forced 2-0 deficit recovery attempt in front of the home crowd. Over 2.5 goals at 5/4 and Dinamo Tbilisi to win 2-1 at 17/2 with bet365 both seem top value bets in our books.

Dinamo Tbilisi won 2-0 at home in the first leg against Alashkert in the only time the two sides have previously met.

Alashkert have lost 2 of their last 3 matches at home and 4 of their last 5 home matches had over 2.5 goals scored. 3 of the last 5 of Dinamo Tbilisi's away matches had over 2.5 goals scored.

Alashkert will be without suspended forward Mihran Manasyan who serves suspension for his straight red in the first qualifying round match against FC Santa Coloma.

20 year old midfielder Giorgi Parunashvili and 21 year old striker Davit Volkovi (4 goals in 8 appearances on loan) have just returned from loan spells and could feature in the squad.

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