Monday, 18 July 2016

FC Copenhagen vs Crusaders Champions League Match Preview And Prediction - July 20, 2016


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Last season saw Copenhagen win their first Danish Superliga title since 2012/2013. Copenhagen were dominant throughout the season, losing just 4 of their 33 fixtures (W21 D8 L4), and finished nine points clear at the top. Copenhagen have now started this years Danish Superliga campaign out perfectly, with the opening fixtures all being played over the last 4 days. Copenhagen continued true to form in the league with a dominant 3-0 win at home to Lyngby and their strong record in European competition continued with a 3-0 win away to Northern Irish champions Crusaders last Wednesday in the first leg.

Northern Irish champions Crusaders managed to retain their title for the first time in their history, with a similarly dominant league performance. Crusaders qualified themselves for the UEFA Champions League qualifying stages for just the second time this millennium and they are yet to progress further than this in the competition. Crusaders have in general a poor European record, having never made it past the 2nd qualifying round in the UEFA Cup, Europa League, or Champions League, and the odds are clearly stacked against them here with a 3-0 defeat at home to Copenhagen in the first leg all but extinguishing their hopes for this year.

With Copenhagen having a 3-0 aggregate lead and having dominated the possession and chances last match, we expect Copenhagen to lock up shop tactically and likely rest a few players as focus returns to the Danish Superliga. While Crusaders will have to come out firing, Copenhagen are defensively very sound and have kept clean sheets in 3 of their last 4 matches. Copenhagen may well pinch a goal or two on the counter-attack as Crusaders put men forward in an attempt to take a consolation from this match, but the markets for a low scoring game hold decent value in this match.

Combining this analysis with the statistics below, we expect under 2.5 goals to be the safe bet for this match and a result of Copenhagen to win 2-0 at 11/2 to be a top value correct score bet for this match.

Copenhagen's 3-0 win at Crusaders in the first leg was the first and only time the two sides have previously met.

2 of Crusaders last 4 away matches had under 2.5 goals scored. Copenhagen have won 2-0 twice in there last 5 home matches.

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