Tuesday, 9 August 2016

Corinthians vs Cruzeiro Brazil Serie A Match Preview And Prediction - August 9, 2016


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Corinthians are going through their first slightly sticky patch under new coach Tite. They come into this game having only won 1 of their last 4 in the league and they suffered a disappointing 2-0 defeat at Atletico PR in midweek. They are still right in the mix at the top but the top five is now really bunched together with just 1 point separating them. They are hampered in this match by not being able to play at their usual Arena Corinthians, where they have a stunning recent record. Their home ground is being used in the Olympics so they’ll have to move across Sao Paulo to the Estádio Municipal Paulo Machado de Carvalho.

As for their opponents, Cruzeiro are having a miserable season and come into the weekend still firmly in the relegation zone. However their 4-2 win over Internacional in midweek which featured some excellent football has given them some hope that there may be light at the end of the tunnel. It’s not the first time this season they’ve played well though but finding any sort of positive consistency has been a real problem. They’d lost 4 on the spin prior to that win over an Inter side, who are in shocking form too so perhaps we shouldn’t read too much into it.

The win market looks one to avoid here. Corinthians are very short to win the game but haven’t been at their best in recent weeks and have dropped points in their last two home games. The change in venue adds another variable and the unpredictability of Cruzeiro also makes you think twice about backing either side for the win here.

The value instead can be found in the total goals market. There have been under 2.5 goals in all of Corinthians’ last 6 games and in Cruzeiro’s last two on the road, that have both ended in 2-0 defeats. The visitors won’t be too adventurous here you wouldn’t think and as such backing Under 2.5 Goals at 19/20 looks a solid punt especially when you consider the recent history of this fixture which is very low scoring.

Corinthians have won all of their last 4 games against Cruzeiro without conceding a goal. There have been under 2.5 goals in 11 of the last 12 meetings between the sides.

There have been under 2.5 goals in 61% of Corinthians matches this season. Cruzeiro have lost 67% of their away games.

Striker Andre returns from a ban and could come back into the side after a lacklustre showing from his teammates in midweek.

Ramon Abila should keep his place along with hat-trick hero Rafael Sobis with Cruzeiro likely to make few if any changes here.

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