Sunday, 24 July 2016

Deportes Tolima vs Once Caldas Colombia Primera A Match Preview And Prediction - July 25, 2016


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Deportes Tolima finished just 13th in the Colombian Primera A overall as the Apertura phase came to an end in June. They ended the Apertura on a run of 4 matches unbeaten before the break (W1 D3), a streak they have extended through their first 4 fixtures of the Clausura phase – W2 D6 over all 8 matches unbeaten. Deportes Tolima seem to be coping ok in the 2nd half of the season since their key goalscorer Matheus Uribe (7 goals in 15 appearances) transferred to Colombian giants Atletico Nacional during the break. Their results have, however, been noticably low scoring without him.

Once Caldas finished 10th after all 20 fixtures of the Apertura phase of the Colombian Primera A, 5 points short of the 8th place spot needed to qualify for the end of season title playoffs. Once Caldas have brought in a few players over the break to strengthen the squad and push for playoffs in the Clausura, as they managed in 2015, a target they are currently on track for despite a run of average results. Caldas have been unconvincing so far, taking just 6 points from their first 5 games (W1 D3 L1). Even their opening 2-1 win against Deportivo Pasto was somewhat “undeserved” as Caldas were dominated both in possession (70% to 30%) and shots on target (10 to 2).

Meetings between Deportes Tolima and Once Caldas have produced some entertaining matches in recent times. Once Caldas won 3-2 at home last time out and Deportes Tolima won 3-1 at home the meeting before that. Circumstances are slightly different this time around though. Deportivo Tolima are without Matheus Uribe and have seen the immediate effect on their results, failing to score in 2 of their last 4 matches. Contrastingly, Once Caldas have scored at least one goal in all 5 of their Clausura fixtures so far and are unbeaten in 4 consecutive away matches. Once Caldas may not be playing the most convincing football statistically, but they have nonetheless been grinding out results even when matches aren’t going their way.

Combining this analysis with the statistics below, we expect Once Caldas or draw at 23/20 and a 1-1 draw at 11/2 with bet365 to both be top value bets for this match.

Once Caldas won 3-2 at home to Deportes Tolima in the Apertura phase fixture from earlier in 2016. Over the last 7 meetings between the two sides, Once Caldas come out ahead with 3 wins, 3 draws and just 1 defeat against Deportes Tolima.

3 of Deportes Tolima's last 5 matches have ended 0-0 and 5 of their last 7 matches have ended with under 2.5 goals. 5 of Once Caldas' last 7 away matches have also ended with under 2.5 goals.

Deportes Tolima have a whole host of changes: key goalscorer Matheus Uribe signed for giants Atletico Nacional (7 goals in 16 games) during the break. Defender Wilmar Barrios serves the second of his 3 match ban for his straight red last time out at home while top scorere Marco Perez (4 goals in 12 appearances) is still doubtful due to injury.

Once Caldas brought in a few players over the break including striker Sergio Romero (1 goal in 5 appearances), who scored on his debut in Caldas' opening 2-1 win but has failed to hit the back of the net since. Defender David Gomez, who signed from Deportivo Pereira, has also started in 4 of the 5 Clausura matches so far.

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