Friday, 15 July 2016

Once Caldas vs Aguilas Doradas Colombia Liga Postobon Match Preview And Prediction - July 17, 2016


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Once Caldas finished their Apertura phase of the Colombian Primera A season solidly, with a midtable 10th place position. Once Caldas were 5 points short of the 8th place spot needed to qualify for the end of season title playoffs and have brought in a few players over the break to strengthen the squad and push for playoffs in the Clausura. Caldas were lucky in their 2-1 win in their opening game last Monday as Deportivo Pasto dominated possession (70% to 30%) and shots on target (10 to 2), with their 2nd goal coming from debut striker Sergio Romero.

Rionegro Aguilas will be disappointed with their start to Clausura, taking just 1 point from their opening 2 fixtures (D1 L1) against Deportes Tolima and Fortaleze, teams they beat convincingly during their Apertura phase. Rionegro Aguilas finished an extremely impressive 6th in the first stage of the season, taking 34 points from 20 matches (W10 D4 L6). Rionegro Aguilas will, however, have to turn around their form promptly if they are continue pushing for a top 4 finish in the overall table to qualify for the Copa Sudamericana.

Once Caldas are the favourites at home thanks to Colombia’s hugely varying climate and Rionegro Aguilas’ awful away form. Rionegro Aguilas are experiencing their worst run yet with 6 consecutive defeats in matches on the road across all competitions. Once Caldas have taken 8 points from a possible 15 at home over their last 5 matches (W2 D2 L1), whereas Rionegro Aguilas have taken none from the same number of matches away (W5). Notably, both sides have scored at least 1 goal in 4 consecutive home and away matches respectively. Combining this analysis with the statistics below, we expect both teams to score at 4/5 to be the safe bet in this match with a final result of Once Caldas win 3-1 at 14/1 with bet365 to be a top value correct score bet.

Once Caldas won 3-2 at home against Rionegro Aguilas the last time the sides met in April. Once Caldas are unbeaten against Rionegro Aguilas in 4 consecutive matches, with 3 wins and 1 draw.

Both teams have scored in all 3 of Once Caldas' matches since the Clausura phase began. Once Caldas are unbeaten in 3 consecutive home matches (W2 D1) and Rionegro Aguilas are on a streak of 7 consecutive defeats away from home.

Once Caldas brought in a few players over the break including striker Sergio Romero (1 goal in 3 appearances), who scored on his debut in Caldas' opening 2-1 win but has failed to hit the back of the net since. Defender David Gomez, who was signed from Deportivo Pereira, has also started all 3 matches so far.

Rionegro Aguilas held on to many of their players during the break playing familar lineups in their 0-0 opener and 2-1 defeat to Fortaleza last Saturday. Striker and top scorer Luis Paez, who has scored 13 goals in 22 appearances so far in 2016, scored the only goal in that 2-1 defeat lined up alongside Diaz and Rodriguez, who had made their way back into the starting 11.

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