Friday, 15 July 2016

Fortaleza FC vs Deportivo Cali Colombia Liga Postobon Match Preview And Prediction - July 17, 2016


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Fortaleza were the worst side in the Colombian Primera A after all 20 fixtures of the “Apertura” phase of 2016 (W4 D3 L13). Fortaleza seemed unimproved in their opening 1-0 away defeat to weak mid-table side Jaguares de Cordoba, registering only 2 shots on target. They have, however, taken 4 points from their 2 matches since, with their new signings, experienced goalkeeper Nelson Ramos and striker Oscar Franco, who has scored 2 goals from his 3 appearances so far, much improving the side.

Deportivo Cali did enough after 20 fixtures (W9 D5 L6) to earn their title knockout stage qualifying 7th place in the Apertura phase of the Colombian Primera A. Deportivo put themselves 2-1 ahead on aggregate in the first leg of the quarterfinals against Medellin, who topped the league after all 20 fixtures, but unfortunately couldn’t keep their advantage losing 2-0 in the away leg (Medellin went on to win the title). Deportivo Cali put in a valiant performance nonetheless and look to be heading for more of the same this season taking 4 points from their first three fixtures of the Clausura.

Despite this being a match between relegation battling Fortaleza and top 8 side Deportivo Cali, the outcome of this match seems less obvious than it appears on paper. Deportivo Cali thrive at home, as most teams in the South American leagues do with the home field and climates having a huge influence on the results. Deportivo are, however, much less impressive away from home. They have only won once over 16 matches on the road this season (W1 D4 L11) and they have failed to score in their last 4 consecutive away matches, a streak we feel Deportivo may overcome as Fortaleza have failed to keep a clean sheet at home since March. While Fortaleza are “strugglers”, they have only lost 1 of their last 5 home matches (W2 D2 L1). Combining this analysis above with the statistics below, we expect both teams to score at 4/5 to be the safe bet and a correct score of draw 1-1 at 5/1 with bet365 to also be a top value bet for this match.

Deportivo Cali won 1-0 in the reverse fixture at home to Fortaleza. Deportivo Cali are now unbeaten in all 3 meetings against Fortaleza, with two wins and 1 draw.

All 3 previous meetings between Fortaleza and Deportivo Cali had under 2.5 goals scored (one 1-0, one 2-0 and one 0-0). Deportivo Cali have not scored a goal in any of their last 4 consecutive away matches. Both teams have scored in 4 of Forteleza's last 5 matches at home.

Fortaleza signed Oscar Franco over the break who scored 2 goals in their 2-1 home win over Rionegro Aguilas last Saturday. Meanwhile Nelson Ramos, an experienced goalkeeper brought in from Deportivo Pasto, has replaced 23 year old goalkeeper Juan Duque, who performed poorly in the "Apertura" half of the season. Midfielder J. Moreno (4 goals from 18 appearances) has been absent from the last 2 fixtures and is doubtful for the match.

Deportivo Cali also brought in a few new players over the break including ex-Millonarios veteran 39 year old midfielder Mayer Candelo from Cortulua, who has featured in all three fixtures so far and scored on his debut. Striker John Pajoy from Medellin (3 goals in 15 appearances) is another decent signing who has also featured twice from 3 matches, but has failed to make an impact as of yet.

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