Sunday, 27 November 2016

Atletico Mineiro vs Sao Paulo Live Stream Brazilian Serie A Match Preview & Prediction 2016


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Ordinarily this game would be a home banker with Atletico Mineiro boasting a very strong home record. They’ve won 72% of their home games this season while Sao Paulo average less than 1 point per game on their travels. However, there are several factors to consider here which suggest the visitors will get a result.

For starters there is absolutely nothing at stake here for the hosts. They are guaranteed to finish at least 4th and qualify for the Copa Libertadores next season but they can’t win the title and don’t really have much chance of finishing higher than 4th with several favours needed elsewhere. If that wasn’t enough to de-motivate them from this game, it also comes inbetween the two legs of their Copa do Brasil final with Gremio. They suffered a hugely disappointing 3-1 home defeat in the 1st Leg last week but will still think they have a chance ahead of their trip to Porto Alegre, so it’s likely they’ll rest many players here.

They’d drawn all of their previous 3 home games prior to that and are without a win in 6 overall so there is plenty of hope for Sao Paulo here even though they are much lower down the league. Their overall season has been a patchy one though and there’s not enough about them that convinces you to back them for the win even against a weakened Atletico Mineiro side. They’ve lost 5 of their last 7 away league games and have only scored 0.72 goals per game on the road. Atletico Mineiro have only failed to score at home once all season so it’s hard to see the visitors having enough firepower to win the game outright.

Therefore, this has the feel of a game that could end up with the points being shared. Sao Paulo might just be content with that as they should win their final home game against already relegated Santa Cruz, which ought to be enough to secure a top 12 finish and a place in the Copa Sudamericana next term. Therefore, backing the draw at 11/5 looks to offer the best value here.

Head To Head
Atletico Mineiro have won 5 of their last 6 home games against Sao Paulo and 4 of the last 6 overall.

Atletico Mineiro vs Sao Paulo Stats
Atletico Mineiro have gone 4 games without a home win, having won 13 of the previous 14. 22% of Sao Paulo away games have ended 1-1 this term in the league.

Atletico Mineiro Team News
Rômulo Otero returns from injury and could feature. There is likely to be some rotation with the 2nd Leg of the Copa do Brasil final to come in midweek.

Sao Paulo Team News
Andrés Chavez and Luiz Araújo return from suspension for the visitors to start up front. Julio Buffarini is likely to start in midfield although he is a natural full-back.

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