Friday, 15 July 2016

Alianza Atletico vs Universitario De Deportes Peruvian Primera División Match Preview And Prediction - July 17, 2016


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Alianza Atletico come into this unbeaten in 3 matches in the league, with back to back wins against UTC Cajamarca and Ayacucho followed by last Sunday’s disappointing 0-0 draw away to relegation fighting side Juan Aurich. Alianza Atletico dropped down to 7th in both the Clausura phase and overall table as Melgar leapfrogged them with a win on the same matchday. Atletico should still consider themselves proud of where they stand since their promotion to the top flight in 2015.

Universitario, champions of the 2016 Apertura phase of the Peruvian Primera Division, have finally settled back into form after opting to experiment lineups over the first 5 or so opening fixtures. Universitario have only taken 8 points from their 8 matches so far (W2 D1 L4) with 7 of these points coming from the last 3 matchdays. Universitario are seemingly through experimenting as their point cushion atop the overall table has diminished to just 1 point above 2nd placed Sporting Cristal. Universitario have already qualified for the 2017 Copa Sudamericana and playoff qualification (top 4 in the league) is their next aim.

Some would say that on paper this match is simply David (Alianza Atletico) versus Goliath (Universitario). Alianza are a small club, recently promoted with a stadium capacity of 5,000 and Universitario are the most successful club in Peruvian football with a stadium capacity of 80,000. This fixture may be closer than it appears at first glace, however. Alianza Atletico have the joint best home record in the Peruvian Primera Division (alongside Universitario), taking 25 points from a possible 33 (W8 D1 L2) so far in 2016. Combining the teams low scoring home and away forms with the statistics below, we expect both teams to score at 8/11 to be the safe bet with a correct score of 1-1 at 5/1 with bet365 to be a top value correct score bet for this match.

Universitario won 3-1 at home in the Apertura fixture from earlier in 2016. Universitario are unbeaten against Alianza Atletico in 4 consecutive fixtures, winning 3 and drawing 1.

Alianza Atletico have the best home record in the Peruvian Primera Division taking 25 points from a possible 33 (W8 D1 L2). 55% of Alianza Atletico's home matches had over 2.5 goals scored and Atletico's have kept a clean sheet 36% of the time. Only 45% of Universitario's away matches had over 2.5 goals.

Alianza Atletico's C. Uribe was rested from his midfield position in their 0-0 draw away to Juan Aurich last Sunday. Meanwhile Atletico's top scorer Robinson Aponza failed to add to his tally with 15 goals in 20 appearances. Alianza Atletico didn't pick up a single card last match so have no suspensions heading into this huge match.

Universitario have settled the variation in lineups over the last few games with 7 points from 3 matches to show for it. and a solid point cushion in the playoff zone. Peruvian striker bagged his 3rd of the season last time out (and his 2nd goal in 3 matches) with experienced goalkeeper Caceda between the sticks. Angel Romero returned last match from suspension to further solidify the midfield.

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