Friday, 15 July 2016

Cortulua vs Independiente Medellin Colombia Liga Postobon Match Preview And Prediction - July 17, 2016


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Cortulua have taken just 3 points from their opening 3 fixtures (W1 L2) in a disappointing start to the Clausura phase of the Colombian Primera A. Cortulua finished 8th at the end of the Apertura phase, taking the last available knockout playoff position, where they made it through to the semifinals to face Medellin, eventually losing at home on penalties after 2-1 results in both legs.

Independiente Medellin continued to show their hold as a top Colombian Primera A side in the Apertura phase of 2016. After 20 fixtures in the league (W11 D7 L2) they topped the table and qualified amongst the other teams in the top 8 for the knockout stage for the Primera A title. Medellin played Junior in the finals and after a 1-1 draw away they sealed the Colombian Primera A title with a 2-0 victory against Junior at home. Medellin also top the overall table and as it stands will qualify for the 2017 Copa Libertadores, though Atletico Nacional and Santa Fe are hot are their heels with 2 games and 3 games in hand respectively.

Medellin are the current champions and have the mental edge over Cortulua since their semifinal penalty shootout victory. Despite home advantage usually having a much stronger influence on results in the Colombian Primera A, Medellin are a decent side away from home. Cortulua may have only lost one match at home in their last 10 home games (W4 D5 L1), that being the 2-1 semifinal defeat to Medellin, but Medellin have a solid record on the road for the Colombian league (W4 D4 L2 over last 10 away matches) and have scored at least 1 goal in their last 9 consecutive away matches. Combining that analysis with the statistics below, we expect Medellin draw no bet at 4/6 to be the safe bet with Medellin to win 2-1 at 17/2 with bet 365 to be the top value correct score bet for this match.

Medellin beat Cortulua on penalties the last time the two teams met in the semi finals of the Apertura knockout phase, where both legs ended 2-1. Medellin have the lion's share of the points over the last 7 meetings between the two sides, with 5 wins and 2 defeats against Cortulua.

Cortulua have only lost one match at home in their last 10 home games (W4 D5 L1), which was a 2-1 loss to Medellin in the semifinals of the Apertura knockout phase. Both teams have scored in Medellin's last 9 consecutive away matches and 4 of Cortulua's last 6 home matches (66%). Both teams have scored and over 2.5 goals were scored in 6 of the last 7 meetings between the 2 sides.

Cortulua brought in a few new faces during the break. New signing midfielder John Mendez has featured in all 3 fixtures so far in the Clausura while Bryan Uruena got his debut and starting positions for the last two. There are no suspensions to report.

Medellin also said goodbye to some old faces and brought in some new with the arrival of defender Jorge Arias from Junior and striker Carlos Ibarguen from Santa Fe (15 goals in 30 appearances for Cortulua during 2015), both are yet to featured in the Medellin lineup.

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